sí, pero no...

The funny thing about Chavez is that he really hasn't done anything revolutionary or socialist. He is just as much of a capitalist and market economist as the US. And ironically, we are greater social democrats than he is. But this is mainly because we have an infrastructure and a historical precedence. His biggest mistake, which is not a crime, is his verbose nature and Anti-Bush rhetoric. Yes, he has ambitions to create a competitive alternative to American political and economic interest. But I have a feeling the Chavez moment may actually implode on itself. Let's consider a few things.

First of all, oil dependent economies are prone to instability--political and economic. It is unwise for him to "wield his oil sword" and grandstand. He is only doing himself and the Venezuelan people a disservice. If we were to implement the Morse theory or model the price of oil will drop eventually. Where will this leave Chavez? In a broke country and a financial crisis on his hands.

Which brings me to my second point. Arguably, while the economy has shown signs of growth and lower unemployment there are other indicators of a potential crisis. Rising housing costs, inflation, illegal immigrants, the mafia, the bloated informal economy, a very young population, and a real lack of tangible improvement.

He has stocked his bureacracy with his own cronies who have mimicked the behavior of the Punto Fijo leadership with traditional clientelismo.

I get the Chavez vision but he needs to do some serious housework.

Third, the military involvement in civilian affairs is also a bad move. It smells of typical egomanical Latin American military behavior.

Perhaps he's waiting for the elections to make further changes.

Perhaps not.

Only time will tell.